GLOBAL RE-POSITIONING: THE FIGHT FOR NO. 2

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Since the very first times, whenever a superpower came into existence, a decent counterbalance to it also emerged along with. During the world war’s era, USA and Britain were the superpowers. So the Germany stood as a counterbalance to it. After 1950 during the days of cold war USSR gave a strong opposition to US as a counter to it. But after this period no any particular nation stood on the same pedestal with US. In present times there are few nations having such potential. And there has been a strong competition among-st them for the position of no. 2.

Let us first check out some nations having such potentials. In this context the first name comes of China. We have often heard about china’s emerging or probably the second superpower status, and its identification as a top emerging economy and a global fire power. In terms of economic power, it is fair to say that China is a primary competitor for the United States. China’s economy is presently the second largest in the world and also is the fastest growing economy. China has transformed a poor society by an economic miracle to become now the second-largest economy in the world. China has a fine class of human resource which makes china even better in the terms of potentials. The poor economic recovery and financial disorder is forcing a galaxy of jobs overseas in china. It is also argued that china will soon become the world’s largest economy and to be making rapid progress in many areas. China’s economy is already half the size of the US economy and projected to overtake it around 2018. Now talking about China’s military power, China has the world’s largest army of about 2.2 million active personnel and 1.5 million reserved ones. It has the edge cutting technologies which can probably match to those of America’s. Now a day’s its military power can be seen in South China Sea where it has announced an air defense zone or ADIZ and has taken a front against Japan and some other Asian nations. The dominance of China over the Asian continent itself proves its might. In overall scenario it can be easily asserted that china has capabilities of being nominated for the competition to be the second on the global index.

Not only china but India has also the potential to be the second after US. Several media publications and academics have discussed the India’s potential of becoming a superpower.A US Intelligence report, from 2012, says that India will become a superpower by 2030; it writes that “India’s rate of economic growth is likely to rise while China’s slows”. According to the report, World Bank suggests that China and India will be an “emerging economy growth pole” by 2025. The report further adds that the total size of the Chinese working-age population will peak in 2016 but decline in later years, while with India it won’t be the same factor. It has been predicted that by 2015 India will overtake China to be the fastest growing economy in the world and emerge as a full-fledged economic superpower by 2025. Although facing many problems such as pervasive rural poverty, entrenched corruption, and high inequality, India has made tremendous strides to fix these and has maintained the world’s largest diverse democracy. India’s young population coupled with the second-largest English-speaking population in the world could give India an advantage over China. The Founder and President of the Economic Strategy Institute and former counselor to the Secretary of Commerce in the Reagan Administration Clyde V. Prestowitz Jr. predicted that “It is going to be India’s century. India is going to be the biggest economy in the world. It is going to be the biggest superpower of the 21st century.” India’s military power is also the one which makes India stand on the global power index. It has the world’s third largest army after China and US, of about 1.3 million active and 1.1 million reserved personnel. Although it might be unable to match Chinese on land, an alternative could be at sea. India has been operating an aircraft carrier since 1960s, whereas China is only now getting in the game. Also India is expanding its defense budget and is introducing several defense reforms. A large number of military equipment has been ordered from Russia and EU and also it is gearing up for the introduction of new indigenous technologies. Currently India has gone through a battery of successful integrated missile tests. So there is no doubt that India is a tough contestant for the fight for number two.

Well, the two Asian power giants, i.e.-China & India, will have to eradicate some of the socio-economic problems due to which it is lagging few steps behind the status of a superpower. China’s problems of wages, aging, declining population, and also gender imbalance will lead china vulnerable to crime. Moreover China has continually polluted its environment after 30 years of growth in the lust of industrial and economic development. The conditions of China could improve if regional territorial disputes would be resolved and China would participate in an effective regional defense system that would reduce the fears of its neighbors. Alternatively, a democratization of China would dramatically improve foreign relations with many nations.

                                Now taking an account of India, in the recent past there had been several cases of corruption and crimes. The deteriorating relation from Pakistan is a major hurdle for its progress. Low literacy rates, abstract poverty and less health care works are crushing its steps toward being an Asian lion. Although India has potentials to be the same but it resists its own rise. India will have to eradicate its poverty, fix its corruption, sort of the territorial disputes over negotiations and strengthen its defense.  

Although the two nations have a lot of potentials but the tug of war between the two will continue for at-least next two decades. It has been estimated that USA will remain a global superpower till 2050. So till 2050 the fight will remain for the no. 2 !   

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